Goldman Sachs Gives Trump “Narrow” Win in 2020 Election

Despite the media’s best attempts to convince the national audience that truisms like “It’s the economy, stupid,” no longer apply in a Donald Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs disagrees. In a comprehensive report released this past weekend, Goldman economists stated the president is bolstered “by the advantage of a first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance” in the upcoming presidential election[1]. The analysts based these predictions on a two-party race, noting if a third-party independent enters the race, such as Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has threatened, the president’s “narrow” margin could widen.

“While it is impossible to predict whether a high-profile independent candidate (like Ross Perot in 1992) will run in 2020, if this occurred it seems more likely to benefit President Trump than the Democratic candidate,” the analysts wrote. They went on the predict a potential independent candidate would reduce the democrat share of the vote by around two percentage points.

Congress Likely to Remain Divided

Goldman went on to predict that a democrat president, if elected, would face substantial resistance when it came to attempting “far-reaching, government-centric platforms…popular with the party’s hardcore progressive voters.” In the report, analysts predicted the House of Representatives would remain democrat-dominated while the Senate remains under republican control. “We…assign only a 35 percent probability to a democrat-controlled Senate,” they wrote.

President Blames the Fed for Sub-4% GDP

As far as President Trump is concerned, the economy could easily be far better than it is if the Federal Reserve “had done its job properly.” The president made headlines over the weekend when he attacked the Fed via Twitter over quantitative tightening, which he called “a killer.” He explained, “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5,000 to 10,000 additional points, and the GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation.”

This is not the first time President Trump has criticized the Fed [2]. He has complained in the recent past mainly about the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates last year, calling the move a “mistake” and the Fed’s actions “unnecessary and destructive.”

Tell us what you think:

  • Will the economy decide the 2020 presidential election?
  • Is the President right about the Fed?
  • What do you think about Goldman Sachs’ prediction?

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[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-trump-has-narrow-shot-in-close-call-election-bid-130404077.html

[2] https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/438823-trump-says-federal-reserve-is-holding-back-stock-market-economy

Discussion

  1. Rob Manwiller

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